Garden City, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

830
FXUS65 KBOI 102125
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
225 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Bands of showers
are still moving across the region, with rain generally falling
below ~7000 feet. Showers will continue through the afternoon
in the mountains, with a break in precipitation tonight ahead
of the next deeper trough with associated cold front on Monday
evening- Tuesday morning. Southwest flow will warm the region up
on Monday, with increasing southwest winds (sustained around
20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) ahead of the front, especially
in southeast Oregon. Snow levels will remain around 6000-7000
feet during the day on Monday, but will drop to 5000-6000 feet
overnight.

Precipitation amounts have continued to decrease in the model
runs. Snow amounts have also significantly decreased, mostly
thanks to the increase in snow levels due to warmer air ahead of
the trough. Mid level to upper level winds will be very high,
creating ideal conditions for upslope snow showers. This could
lead to locally higher amounts than currently forecast, with
higher elevations above 8000 feet in the West Central and
Wallowa Mountains seeing a 50% chance of seeing at least 8
inches of snow by Tuesday evening. Most lower elevations near
population centers in the mountains will see less than an inch
of snow, with the dominant precipitation being rain until
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft ahead of
a Pacific trough will become increasingly moist on Wednesday and
continue into Thursday, but the bulk of the precip will be directed
at the northern higher elevations with little to no precip chances
near the Nevada border. Precip totals of up to an inch are forecast
for the higher elevations. This would equate to several inches of
snow on the mountains as snow levels range from 5000-6000 feet
through the period. A deep surface low off the northwest coast will
enhance the S-SE winds across our area on Wednesday as winds could
gust to around 40 mph in some areas, especially in s-central Oregon.
The winds diminish by Thursday as the surface low moves inland and
weakens.

The Pacific trough is progged to amplify as it moves into our area
on Friday with a slow eastward progression through Saturday. Latest
models are in better agreement with the timing of this system. The
trough will accompanied by showers and lowering snow levels. Chances
of precip range from 30-60 percent in the valleys and >60 percent in
the mountains on Friday, lowering to 15-30 percent on Saturday
(favoring the higher elevations). Snow levels lower to around 4000
feet by late Friday with some snow accumulations likely in the
higher elevations. A cold front accompanies the trough on Friday,
resulting in breezy post-frontal winds that linger into Saturday.
Temperatures average a few degrees below normal both days.

Precip chances increase on Sunday with at least a 30 percent chance
of valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers with the arrival of
the next upper trough. However, there is uncertainty with the system
due to model/ensemble differences. Temperatures remain a few degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR, except light showers with local MVFR conditions
generally higher elevations north of a KBNO-KONO-KSNT line until
Mon/02Z. Mountains obscured. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL. Areas of
LLWS developing after Mon/02Z, including KBNO. Surface winds:
variable less than 10 kt, becoming S-SE 5-15 kt overnight. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR with ceilings around 10kft AGL. A slight chance (around
20 percent) of light rain/sprinkles until Sun/22Z. Variable surface
winds 6 kt or less becoming SE up to 10 kt after Mon/04Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday IDZ012>014-028.
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ Monday
     ORZ061-063-064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW